Cannabis Europa 2025 – Key Insights Day 1: Part 2

Below, we’ve summarised the key insights from the vibrant and diverse discussions throughout the second part of Day 1 of Cannabis Europa 2025. If you’re keen to dive into the details, we’ll be exploring each session in more detail over the coming weeks. You can read Part 1 here.

Germany Pivots: The Impact of the New Government on German Growth​

Once seen as the blueprint for European cannabis reform, Germany now faces political uncertainty following the election of new coalitio government. This session explored what these shifts mean for the medical and adult-use sectors, and why the ‘genie is out of the bottle’ even if progress slows.

Post-legalisation reality​

• Dirk Heitepriem ( Aurora® Europe & BvCW Chair) noted that creating the cannabis law was easier than defending it. With no clear structure for market review, the industry is now in a “buying time” phase, waiting on data to justify its existence.
• Despite momentum, bureaucracy is holding back clubs. Olivia Ewenike (Cannabis Law Academy) emphasised that administrative delays and slow responses from authorities are forcing some clubs to the black market.

Clubs, stigma, and inconsistent enforcement​

• Ewenike highlighted a misunderstanding of non-profit structures, suggesting that clubs can be supported by profitable service providers — a distinction authorities are only beginning to grasp.
• Sascha Mielcarek (Canify AG) said clubs are expensive to run, and without operational flexibility, they risk financial collapse. There’s movement from some local regulators, but fear, stigma, and over-cautiousness still dominate.

Medical cannabis and the ‘tsunami’ of import reform​

• Vladimir Kofcegarski (PharmCann Deutschland AG) described the shift of medical cannabis out of the narcotics framework as a “tsunami”, warning it will disrupt the top-tier players in the market. He cited Poland’s 70% downturn as a cautionary parallel.
• Mielcarek criticised import quota politics without data, saying Germany’s health ministers are weaponising uncertainty, while real usage data won’t be ready until October — and final evaluation isn’t expected until 2028.

What’s realistic in terms of reform or rollback?​

• The panel largely agreed that a full rollback is unlikely. Heitepriem insisted that we live in a permanently shifting cannabis market, but that reform is more likely than repeal. The next political phase will bring debate, not reversal.
• Telemedicine adjustments may be on the table, said Mielcarek, but drastic changes are unlikely unless cannabis is reclassified — something politically difficult to reverse.

Path to professionalisation: models, margins, and mindset​

• Ewenike encouraged embracing a Hybrid model: non-profit clubs supported by for-profit infrastructure. This model could drive sustainability once authorities catch up.
• Heitepriem noted vast variations between German states, and stressed the need for copyable club models that can scale. However, deep-rooted stigma means even compliant operators are being held to near-impossible standards.

Investing in Cannabis as a Prescription Medicine: Evidence, Opportunity, and Risk​

A maturing sector, but data remains the gateway to scale​

• 
  Bernhard Babel (CEO, Avextra) emphasised that while cannabis remains underutilised in the UK, there is already more trial activity and real-world evidence than is often recognised, which can now be used to support robust clinical studies.
  
• 
  Melissa Sturgess (CEO, Ananda Pharma) reinforced that, ‘whether we like it or not’ the only viable path to medicines remains through RCTs, especially for widespread access and reimbursement. She cited GW Pharmaceuticals as a proven model for navigating this path, from product development to licensing.
  

Mismatch between funding sources and scientific timelines​

• 
  Tristan Gervais (Founder, T Capital) drew a contrast between institutional capital backing pharma and the angel/high-net-worth investors funding medical cannabis. Investors in cannabis face unique risks and depend more on regulatory change to generate value.
  
• 
  Michael Trace (Managing Director, FTI Consulting) asked what biotech investors are looking for. Babel responded that traditional pharma KPIs and licensing potential remain key benchmarks.
  
• 
  Sturgess noted the ‘valley of death’ in Phase 2 trials is particularly challenging in cannabinoid research. Less emphasis will be placed on traditional safety testing achievements, because we know cannabis has been used safely for centuries.
  

Learning from GW and building on the foundation​

• 
  GW’s six-year path to Epidyolex was highlighted as a surprisingly short development timeline that others can emulate.
  
• 
  Sturgess explained how Ananda is using GW’s existing data in Australia to compare its lead compound, a move that lowers trial costs and shortens the development cycle.
  
• 
  She pointed out that while GW had to build its supply chain and invest heavily in marketing, today’s market maturity allows newer entrants to buy API and piggyback on GW’s groundwork.
  

Convergence of pharma and cannabis industries​

• 
  Babel observed a growing synergy: the cannabis industry benefits from pharma’s standards, while pharma can now lean on cannabis companies’ patient data and real-world experience.
  
• 
  Gervais agreed that telemedicine platforms hold vast stores of patient data that pharma should begin to integrate into trial design and regulatory submissions.
  
• 
  Still, pharma trust remains limited, despite cannabis’s centuries of use and data from hundreds of thousands of patients.
  

Capital at a Crossroads: Fixing Cannabis Finance in Europe​

Capital flight, investor fatigue, and the long road to legitimacy​

• 
  Anthony Coniglio (NewLake Capital Partners) opened with a frank assessment: the lack of stability and predictability continues to deter investors. While many reminisce about the “gold rush” era, today’s environment is shaped by uncertainty and caution.
  
• 
  William Muecke (Artemis Growth Partners) stressed that cannabis remains low on the list for institutional investors, citing global economic pressures and persistent regulatory overhangs. Without institutional participation, capital markets for cannabis remain thin and fragmented.
  

Specialist capital is holding the space together​

• 
  Muecke argued that this is a prime moment for value investing, as federal uncertainty continues to suppress valuations. But it’s not for casual investors — success requires being fully immersed in the sector, with constant attention to market dynamics.
  
• 
  John Pinto (SOJE Capital) added a dose of humour and honesty, calling his cannabis investment one of his worst financial decisions — albeit one of the most rewarding personally. He noted that expectations for quick returns have been at the heart of many poor investment strategies.
  

Lessons from the US: risk, reality, and recalibration​

• 
  Coniglio highlighted that US investors were burned by short-term thinking, with many chasing fast returns and underestimating the structural hurdles. Now, there’s a clear reluctance to re-engage unless longer-term viability and frameworks are in place.
  
• 
  Pinto agreed, stating that unsustainable capital plans — built on unrealistic timelines — have haunted many US cannabis companies.
  

Why Europe still holds appeal​

• 
  When asked if the US is “uninvestable,” the panelists rejected the binary. Pinto said he entered the space because he believed in the emergence of a consumer-driven market — a view he still holds. But he admitted the capital environment has been misjudged.
  
• 
  Coniglio emphasised that interest in Europe isn’t about abandoning the US, but about diversification. Real estate-backed strategies, like NewLake’s, offer a more derisked entry point, while Europe’s emerging regulatory frameworks may offer greater predictability over time.
  

The post Cannabis Europa 2025 – Key Insights Day 1: Part 2 appeared first on Business of Cannabis.

Continue reading...